- The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ edged down to 48.8 in October, with activity in the sector contracting for the 14th consecutive month. New orders decreased at a slightly slower rate, but output, exports and employment deteriorated further. Survey respondents remained positive in their outlook for future output, but that measure fell to an 11-month low.
- Just one of the top 10 markets for U.S.-manufactured goods experienced expanding growth in the sector in October. After contracting in September, Mexico rebounded in October, expanding for the eighth time in the past nine months. At the same time, Chinese manufacturing activity was negative in the latest data, pulling back after rising in the prior two months.
- A candlestick chart reflects the change in PMI readings over the past six months, April to October. The straight line reflects the range of the values over that time frame. A red box indicates a lower PMI in October than six months ago, with green boxes reflecting the opposite. See the accompanying graph.
o Only three markets had PMI readings in October that were higher than six months ago: Brazil, Mexico and South Korea.
o There were four economies that had a PMI range entirely below 50 over that period, with the manufacturing sectors in those countries contracting over the entire six-month time frame. Those markets were Germany, South Korea, Switzerland (no link available) and the United Kingdom.
- Chinese industrial production strengthened slightly, rising 4.6% year-over-year in October, up from 4.5% in September. More encouragingly, retail sales accelerated from 5.5% year-over-year in September to 7.6% in October, the best reading since May and a sign that consumers are beginning to spend more strongly. Despite some better-than-expected data in October, the Chinese economy remains challenged, especially relative to pre-pandemic levels.
- Real GDP in the Eurozone edged down 0.1% in the third quarter, with essentially flat growth over the past year. Industrial production decreased 1.1% in September, falling for the second time in the past three months, with output plummeting 6.9% year-over-year. More encouragingly, inflation rose 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% year-over-year in September and the slowest pace since July 2021.
- The U.S. dollar has risen 4.2% since July 14 against a trade-weighted, broad-based index of currencies for goods and services. Yet it has fallen by 1.5% since October 26, particularly as yields have pulled back since then.
- The U.S. trade deficit rose from $58.66 billion in August to $61.54 billion in September. The stronger trade deficit resulted from an increase in goods imports that outpaced the rise in goods exports. The service-sector trade surplus slipped from $25.95 billion, the highest since March 2018, to $24.76 billion.
- U.S.-manufactured goods exports totaled $967.50 billion through the first nine months of 2023, using non-seasonally adjusted data, off 0.50% from $972.39 billion year to date in 2022. At the same time, manufactured goods imports totaled $1,998.36 billion year to date, down 5.21% from $2,108.29 billion for the same time frame last year.
- Manufacturers in the U.S. continue to work robustly with the Biden administration and Congress to open markets, enforce trade agreements and address trade challenges overseas to ensure trade certainty and competitiveness. Specific actions and priorities include the following:
o Urging action on global manufacturing trade barriers in an annual submission to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative
o Calling for more ambition with the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
o Expressing deep concerns regarding a recent decision by USTR to withdraw support for a U.S. proposal for WTO digital trade disciplines
o Leading a business community letter to Congress urging passage of the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill
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