Auto Sales Recovery Is For-Real - Record Sales Expected Third Month In A Row

There’s no need for an asterisk on the current boom in U.S. auto sales — it’s the real deal. Experts said auto sales are up in absolute terms, and not just a trick of statistics, relative to poor sales a year ago due to COVID-19.

Retail U.S. auto sales in May, not counting bulk sales to rental, government, and commercial fleets, are expected to be the highest ever for the month of May and the third month in a row of record retail sales, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. 

The forecast calls for May retail sales of about 1.4 million, which would be the highest May retail sales in 10 years, the forecasting and consulting firms said. Total sales, including fleet sales, are expected to be about 1.6 million.

That would be nearly a 40% increase vs. May 2020, when many dealerships were still shut down due to the pandemic. But the significant thing is, the recent results have been high by any standard, not just based on a low year-ago comparison.

There are several factors behind strong customer demand, said Tom Libby, Associate Director, automotive loyalty and industry analysis, for IHS Markit, in a phone interview. He said March auto sales were a record 1.6 million.

“Several things are contributing to it,” he said. “There’s pent-up demand, from people who were waiting until COVID is over, or maybe sort-of over.”

In addition, interest rates are low. That makes auto loans more affordable for customers, and makes it more affordable for automakers to offer incentives in the form of low-interest loans, Libby said.

U.S. households also have money to spend. “Money is flowing out, in various forms of federal government support,” he said.

Low new-vehicle inventory continues to limit auto sales, or else sales probably would be even higher, forecasters said.

Written by:  Jim Henry, Reporter & Contributor, for Forbes.